The Red Sox have an early record of 11-14 after being swept by the lowly Orioles this weekend, particularly embarrassing for the Sox because even after the sweep, the O's still have an MLB worst 7 wins. I feel like Sox management made some pretty big mistakes this offseason.. which have been glaringly noticeable in the early goings of 2010. Maybe it will prove beneficial for them that their shortcomings are So blatant so early.. since GM Theo Epstein already said he won't wait around to make changes. In this post I'm going to list the top five reasons why the Sox have been bad so far/won't make the playoffs this year:
1) A Lack of O-Fence
Sox management wanted to focus on run prevention this offseason.. unfortunately they forgot that most if not all of the teams who have won championships recently (including the '04 & '07 Sox) have had top offenses. Just look at the list of recent champs.. Notice anything? In the maybe-post-steroid-age-of-baseball, there are fewer elite sluggers in the game, which are necessary for any top offense, and the Sox have, well, none of them. Ortiz is definitely not what he used to be (see 2/1A). Manny's replacement Jason Bay, who really wasn't an elite slugger anyway, is gone. Instead of trying to make a move, the Sox decided to fill in their gaps with aging journeyman Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro, and ex steroid-freak Adrian Beltre. Nice.
The Sox definitely have some terrific hitters in their lineup, but to have a great offense, you need to have one or two top SLUGGERS in the game. Just go through their other hitters.. you'll realize they don't have any true huge bats. Pedroia is fantastic, but he's also more of a contact-early-lineup-run-scorer-guy than a transcendent power hitter. Martinez is good, but hardly a huge-impact slugger. Youk is solid, and his defense is top-notch, but there are actually many first baseman in the game with comparable defense and better offensive production (ie. Albert Pujols, Mark Texiera, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez). Also consider there are other guys in baseball, like Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, who I would want over Youk despite the poorer defense. Elsbury is a good young leadoff-type hitter, but he's hurt right now. J.D. is getting older and probably will spend about 42 games on the DL this year. Mike Cameron is already on the DL this year. Where are the runs going to come from with this lineup?
The Sox should've gone out this offseason and picked up a big bat like Adrian Gonzalez. There's still obviously plenty of time to make a move before the trade deadline, which isn't until the end of July, but big deals aren't usually made in the early stages of the season since most teams still have hopes of making the playoffs (ie. the Padres are atop the fairly tough NL West right now so they probably won't trade Gonzalez). By not making a move this past offseason, the Sox may have shot themselves right in the foot, because when the trade deadline comes around, the Sox may be selling instead of buying.
2/1A) Little Papi
I love David Ortiz. I'll never forget how amazingly clutch he was in his prime, even if he used steroids. I don't think steroids are what made him so clutch.. there are only a few people in the world who have the desire, focus, and ability to rise to the occasion like he did. Obviously the steroids helped. I hate seeing Ortiz ripped by the local and national media all the time, because I do love him, but I think it's time for the Sox to make some changes with how they use him. The Sox cannot rely on him to be the bat that he once was.
Now there are all those that say, "well he was one of the most productive hitters from June 1st of last year." My response to those people is that: a) unfortunately the season doesn't start in June, b) his start to this season is possibly even more atrocious than last year, c) he's not getting any younger, d) he has a history of injury problems, and e) Did you honestly think he was going to have a full season with numbers similar to those from '03 - '08? Look at his numbers and his age.. he's getting worse every year. I think if he gets to hit for a full season like last year, he'll heat up like last year and his numbers will probably be around .250 25 HRs 80 RBIs.
So what changes do I suggest? Well, I think Terry Francona and Sox management know what I know (that Ortiz is inevitably declining and will never return to his pre-2008 self). So I think if the Sox can find a way to acquire a big bat, they can hang on to Ortiz as a back-up DH or 1B. That way, when somebody gets hurt they can have Ortiz step back in as the DH. The problem with this is that the Sox already have two aging much-loved veterans in Lowell and Varitek fighting for playing and DH time.
3) Uhhh.. Run Prevention? Part I (Pitching)
The Sox rotation was supposed to be their biggest strength (for uhh.. run prevention), so in a lot of ways, the Sox pitching has been their biggest disappointment so far in 2010. Beckett has struggled so far with an ERA over 6. Despite his tough start, I don't think there should be that much concern with him since he has such a solid track record season to season. Lackey and Lester have been mediocre, but like Beckett should get better as the season progresses. The starter currently pitching the best is Buchholz, which can either be a good or bad sign depending on how you look at it. I'm starting to wonder if Dice-K is ever gonna put it all together again. Wakefield can always help but really is just a number five at this point.
So overall, I think that the Sox rotation will get better as the season goes, but the early showing is hardly what they were hoping for. The bullpen, anchored by Papelbon, Delcarmen, and Bard, has looked mostly good, but has blown a couple close games as bullpens tend to do, including yesterday against the O's.
4) Uhhh.. Run Prevention? Part II (Defense)
When Sox management justified their signings of Beltre, Cameron, and Scutaro by citing run prevention, I believe they actually thought these guys would prevent runs. So far this season, the Sox D has been pretty atrocious. Currently, they've committed the second most errors in the AL. I think the D will prove better as the season goes and Elsbury and Cameron get healthy, but it's interesting that the team's so-called strengths of pitching and defense (for uhh.. run prevention) haven't been very strong for the first month.
5) Injuries
You can't really predict how much of a factor injuries will be for any team throughout the season, but so far injuries have not been kind to the Sox. As I've already said, two of the starting outfielders in Elsbury and Cameron haven't been playing, which didn't help the Sox in April. Hopefully, they'll be able to get healthy and stay healthy. But if there is one predictor of injuries, it's age, and the Sox definitely have some older guys with history of injuries.
